Articles

 

 
Article 1: Could Real Estate Be Investing's Next Greatest Thing?
 
 
 
 
 

 


 
 
Could Real Estate be Investing’s Next Greatest Opportunity
After the Housing Market Crash?
By Michael Black, CFP, CDFA
Michael Phillips Black Wealth Management
December, 2007
 
The housing market is in a slump! Not just here, but everywhere, regardless of where “here” is. This slump is the natural outcome of an over-heated housing market earlier this decade. The “irrational exuberance” of real estate buying, whether for speculation or ownership, was similar to the tech crazed buying of the 1990s stock markets ... and we all know what that led to. We now know this last real estate boom and subsequent meltdown was fueled by the sub prime “liar loans” offered during the last decade.
If you were caught speculating on residential real estate and invested towards the end of the cycle, you had your hat handed to you! According to Robert Shiller at Yale University, “It is not improbable that we will see large real price declines [of residential real estate] extending over many years in major cities that have seen large increases ... In the last cycle in the U.S., real home prices fell only 15% from the peak in 1989 to 1996, but some cities real prices fell much more. Los Angeles fell 42% from 1989 to 1997. London fell 47% from 1988 to 1995.” Based on history, we may have just begun to see the slaughter!
Since 1995 the number of families renting actually declined as renters bought homes, even as the population was increasing. During this same period, home ownership increased about 35%. In 1995 about 28 million Americans owned homes. As of 2005 about 38 million Americans owned a home which represents an increase from 64% to 69% of the population. This is exactly the same time period the mortgage industry introduced the “sub prime liar loans” or loans that did not require verification of income, tax returns or ability to repay loans. In essence, just about everybody qualified to purchase a home!

 But as always, problems create potential opportunities. According to the Wall Street Journal, August 6, 2007, “’The US housing boom over the past decade turned 5 million renters into homeowners’, says William Wheaton, a professor of economics and real estate at MIT. But many of the loans that made that possible have proved unsustainable. Dr. Wheaton expects about two thirds of those people to go back to renting.”
In addition, the population of “Echo Boomers,” or kids of baby boomers, ages 24-34 will start increasing by about 20% over the next 20 years.   The housing affordability index suggests that housing costs have risen to unaffordable levels over the last decade. Add to that the supply of rental properties has declined nationally due to the “condo conversions” and the lack of apartment building and this all suggests that demographically, economically and even socially, investing in apartment buildings appears to be the perfect storm of investment opportunities. But as in all real estate investing, the same metrics still apply; Location, Location, Location!
Just as some cities outpaced others during the residential real estate price run up ... and now down, apartment building investing success will be equally as spotty. “Cities with a ‘buzz’ are where the action is. Cities attracting young, creative people will also attract employment growth,” quotes Kevin Finkel, Executive Vice President of Resource Real Estate, a private equity fund that sponsors nationwide apartment investments based in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. According to Finkel, “It used to be that when a kid graduated from college, he left his hometown to find a job. Today, he moves to the hippest place he can find/afford. The employment pool chases the talent and relocates to the talent pool.” Hence, we see employment growth following socially desirable, diversified and educated “hot spots.”
According to Richard Florida at Carnegie Mellon University, and his book, “The Rise of the Creative Class”, “Diversity and creativity are basic drivers of innovation and regional and national growth.” Therefore, determining where the creative class is moving helps determine where the next best rental markets are or will evolve. Corporate America is following the same trend, providing the necessary employment base. 
Investors should seek out cities that attract young, educated renters. These cities typically exhibit the "buzz", that is, cities that have an excitement, open-mindedness, a thriving nightlife and an overall atmosphere conducive to creativity. Within each city, look for opportunities to invest in infill locations proximate to high-income areas that are centrally located and offer easy access to employment centers and recreational opportunities. Furthermore, proximity to colleges and universities are of particular interest.
 
Generally, new construction and land costs are so high that only class “A” expensive apartments are currently being built. This is forcing new construction to take place outside of the cities main attraction to “Gen Y” renters: night life and entertainment ... the “buzz.” Closer in town opportunities exist in existing class “B” apartments. These “infill” opportunities have more barriers to competition. It’s expensive to tear down an existing building to build a new apartment building. With less competition, and high demand, occupancies tend to be higher and values appreciate.
 
Add to the formula, the classic real estate investment determinates such as employment trends, in-depth evaluation of major employers and dominant industry evaluation, population growth (both historic and forecasted), median household income trends, median home values, median age of population, existing market supply, replacement costs, property condition, local competition, etc. and investors can find great investment opportunities in the apartment building sector made available, at leastpartially, by the sub-prime mortgage fiasco and residential real estate market crash! 
Michael Black, CFP, CDFA
Office: 480-425-0154
MPBlack.com
 
Information is for educational purposes only. These views are those of the author and should not be construed as investment or mortgage advice nor should it be considered as an offer to sell or buy any securities, provide investment advice, or make investment recommendations. Individuals are encouraged to consult with a professional in regards to legal, tax, mortgage, and/or investment issues.

 

 
Alternative Investments Reduce Portfolio Risk and Improve Return…..
Even in this Current Interest Rate Environment!
by Michael Black, CFP, CDFA

 

 

 

 

The S&P 500 (most commonly used index for the US stock market) is currently where it was in July of 2001.  That's 3 years of no market movement.  The NASDAQ is where it was in November of 1998!  That doesn't mean the stock markets were flat.  The stock markets haven't seen this amount of volatility since World War II!
This is why we have been introducing alternative investments to the stock and bond markets in an effort to reduce risk (volatility) and increase overall portfolio yields.  Alternatives like Real Estate, Equipment Leasing and Natural Gas drilling programs. 
 
Over the last several years we have been using REITs or Real Estate Investment Trusts in our portfolios, both traded and non-traded REITs.  They have been a critical tool for our clients to reduce or eliminate the losses the stock markets have presented over the last 3 years.  We are currently getting out of traded REITs (those REITs that trade on the stock market) and acquiring non-traded REITs (those REITs that are not yet traded, but intend to do so).  According to the New York Times, "Financial advisers and independent brokers are more likely to recommend non-traded REITs as a long-term investment strategy because of the reduced liquidity and volatility….[REITs offer] Inflation protection: Because landlords often raise rent when inflation rises, equity REITs gain more income and help protect your investments from the long-term corrosive effect of inflation."
 
Incidently, Inland, the non-traded REIT sponsor we have been working with over the last few years recently had one of their REITs become publicly traded.  It is currently traded at around $13.60 - $13.90.  Investors paid $10 per share and are earning a 9.4% annual dividend, paid monthly! 
 
But, there are others, like equipment leasing that actually benefit from rising interest rates and higher inflation, exactly what's going on today.  According to Smart Money Magazine, "Investing in equipment leasing also can serve as a hedge against inflation. Basically, certain companies, such as Atel Capital Group, holds large portfolios of equipment (planes, ships, tractors, among others) and leases them out to companies. Investors can buy stakes in the portfolio, and presumably benefit from leases that adjust for inflation."
 
We also work with Natural Gas developmental drilling programs that develop known resources of natural gas.  You must have read Allan Greenspan's comments over the last year regarding the demand for natural gas exceeds the supply, driving prices up.  You can benefit from these price increases by owning producing natural gas wells right here in the US and receive substantial tax breaks by investing in these programs.  The program we work with allows you to deduct 90% of your first year's investment (assuming certain limitations and requirements) and has a 30 year track record of cash distributions as a company.
 
According to ChangeWave Investing, regarding natural gas investing, "Warren Buffett already recognizes the opportunities [investing in natural gas]. Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan is talking about the problem…..But most investors have not yet (a) grasped what's happening, or (b) figured out where the really big money is going to be made as this crisis unfolds….I can make this real simple. There is a large, growing gap between natural gas demand and natural gas supply that is about to spike prices…..This will wreak havoc on gas consumers and energy utilities…and drive the earnings power of natural gas producers sky high for the foreseeable future….What's more, this shortage is NOT a one-year event -- it is a long-term secular shortage."
 
Investing in Alternative Investments can be speculative, lack liquidity, and involve substantial fees, may not be suitable for all investors.  Securities offered through ProEquties, Member FINRA & SIPC
 

 
"When The Going Gets Tough"
Straight Talk on Divorce Settlements
by Michael Phillips Black
 
 
Although it's a chapter we never want to come to in our lives, many of us have at least shared in the experience of a divorce. When the marriage is over, there's still the rest of your life ahead. Knowing the facts about arriving at a fair divorce settlement is crucial to address current and long-term financial needs to ensure a better tomorrow. When should you involve a Certified Divorce Financial Analyst ("CDFA," previously CDP, Certified Divorce Planner) when considering a divorce? After making financial comparisons of each settlement offer and the effects to both parties, "every time" appears to be the most logical answer.

A CDFA has a primary objective - to achieve a financially fair and equitable distribution in the divorce settlement for the client. An attorney defines "equitable" as the legal allocation of assets. In Arizona, as a community property state, an equitable distribution is usually a 50% split of marital assets. A CDFA looks closely at those assets and determines who will benefit most from each asset, from a "needs based" perspective. Attorneys come from a "source based" perspective, wherein if there is $1,000,000 in assets, each spouse will receive $500,000 each. So, if there's $500,000 equity in the house and the wife is emotionally attached to the house, the attorney might allocate that to her. And if the husband has a $500,000 pension, the attorney might allocate that to him. The problem in this case is, the husband has maintained financial security and the wife has a house that eats mortgage payments that she may only be able to maintain as long as the alimony is paid.

A CDFA is able to create case exhibits and provide expert reliable witness testimony if the case were to go to court, to illustrate both party's net worth and liquidity (ability to pay bills) both now and into the future. For example, while a pension will continue to increase in value, the net worth of the spouse who was allocated the house may be reduced if the recipient is unable to afford the mortgage payments after the alimony has stopped, forcing possible foreclosure if unable to sell the house efficiently. Additionally, the house which was an asset the spouse may have been emotionally attached to, may have to be surrendered for something of lesser value. A liquidity analysis by a CDFA would have identified the cash flow inability of the spouse receiving the house. In this case, a better option may be to provide more community assets to the higher wage earner and in return he/she would provide more alimony to the spouse so that more cash flow could be used to maintain the home. The spouse receiving the house may have to refinance the home to offer some equity to the higher wage earner in exchange for more alimony. By making these projections, a CDFA will be able to illustrate the net worth and liquidity "situation" of both spouses under negotiation to provide the most equitable settlement.

Alimony, also known as spousal support, is usually paid to the spouse who earns a lesser income. Alimony is based upon general formulas set by the state of Arizona. It is deductible to the payer and taxable to the payee. If not planned properly, this can be another financial black hole if the spouse receiving the alimony is not prepared for the year-end tax payment due to Uncle Sam. Of course, the higher wage earner may benefit, from a tax standpoint, by receiving more assets and increasing tax deductible alimony he/she pays.

Another projection taken into consideration when planning for a secure financial future is the fact that child support is paid to the custodial parent only as long as the children are minors (under 18) and living with him/her. Once the children mature and leave the house, will the spouse be able to live on the reduced income? And if not, have other arrangements and investments been made to ensure that this lifestyle may be maintained with the reduced income? Is this the point where the home-owning spouse needs to sell the house? The CDFA's financial projections can determine this before the divorce is settled, letting both parties know the effect of each settlement offer.

A CDFA understands that once the divorce legal document is signed and assets are distributed, there is usually no renegotiating of the settlement, with the exception of child support which may be changed after the divorce. Therefore all assets and allocation settlement options should be brought to the table before this takes place to ensure the best decisions are made.

When working with an attorney, a CDFA's goal is to give their client a clear understanding of all the financial issues, such as (1) alimony and child support, (2) personal vs. marital property, (3) valuing and dividing property, (4) retirement and pension values, (5) how to split the house, and (6) tax problems and solutions. And by giving the client the opportunity to analyze the effect of each asset allocation settlement option, in both its present and future financial effect, there is a more secure and satisfied confidence in making the final decisions. Many attorneys are advising their clients to work with a Certified Divorce Financial Analyst to ensure their clients will be satisfied with the outcome now and also in the long run. Satisfied clients boost the attorney's reputation and encourage referrals. It's a win-win situation for everyone involved.

This additional support and advice of the CDFA to the client provides an objective viewpoint in what can sometimes otherwise be an emotional and mentally-charged situation. The client will have peace of mind that the settlement they are choosing is financially feasible and their future will be secure.

Many experts are now recommending CDFA's and financial planning, including Fortune Magazine, writing April 15, 2002, "The latest must have divorce accessory... specially trained Certified Divorce Planners." The Wall Street Journal, February 12, 2003 issue, wrote an article titled, "How to Plan the Perfect Divorce: Hire a Specialist." Within this article, Rachel Emma Silverman writes, "...divorce planners have been a big help and money saver in the long run." July 30, 2003, in the Wall Street Journal's article, "Don't Make a Bad Split Worse: Plan a Financially Sound Divorce," Terry Cullen writes, "Even the most amicable split-ups can lead to financial disaster without careful planning." CDFA's offer invaluable information on the forefront of divorce settlement so that a financially fair, equitable and just resolution can be achieved, not only for the moment but also down the road.

A CDFA has graduated from the Institute for Divorce Financial Analysts (previously the "Institute for Certified Divorce Planners"), has received special training in the financial issues of divorce, and has fulfilled continuing education requirements to meet the goal of providing sound financial advice in this area. The Institute for Certified Divorce Planners was founded in 1993. It was developed to fill a need for financial expertise in the area of divorces.

 

 

The Other Women  
By Russ Wiles for the Arizona Republic "Business Buzz"

Michael Phillips Black has been spending a lot of time lately with the mistress, but that's OK with his wife. "The Mistress" is what the Black's call their 34-foot Sea Ray motor boat.  The name reflects the amount of time he spends on the vessel.

Black, a Scottsdale certified financial planner, likes to take his investment clients on spins around Saguaro Lake, where he docks the boat. "Relationships are everything in our business," he said. "I want to meet clients' families and have them meet our family."

The Blacks also keep a small inflatable boat at the lake for use by their daughters and clients' children.  "The kids have their own boat to play with, to keep them out of our hair," he said joking.

"The Girlfriend" is the name Black's two daughters, ages 13 and 9, gave to the inflatable boat.  "So I go out each week with 'The Mistress' and 'The Girlfriend,' " he said.

 

The Bond Solution - Laddered Bond Portfolios
By Michael Black, CFP, CDFA

  

 

 Michael Phillips Black & Associates investment policy is to include bond portfolios within accounts, even growth accounts.  Bonds offer diversification for portfolios. They were the "saving grace" over the last 3 years, offering positive returns while stocks dropped significantly.  It takes no rocket scientist to note that interest rates are low, the lowest in almost 50 years.  If and when interest rates rise,the price of bonds will drop in value. When the bonds drop in value, this can possibly cause a negative effect on your total return for that asset class. 

Although our firm still believes that bonds play an important role in our client's financial portfolio, we feel "laddered bond funds" are a better choice given the economic cycle that is likely to happen, i.e. rising interest rates.

Laddering involves building a portfolio of bonds with staggered maturities so that a portion of the portfolio will mature each year. By using Laddered Bonds, you can gain yield by adding maturity and reducing market risk. What the laddered bond does is make time work for you.  For example: if an investor buys bonds that mature every year for ten years - a one year bond, two year, three year and so on in their portfolio, they will get the yield of a five year bond. The closer the maturity date, the less the bond price fluctuates. Where the bond maturity is long, the investor's portfolio will drop in value when interest rates rise.  By using laddered bonds, the investor receives the yield and risk of a 5-year bond, which means less fluctuation of the portfolio and participation in the increasing yield environment of a rising interest rate market.

COMMON MISTAKES CONSUMERS MAKE WHEN

APPROACHING FINANCIAL PLANNING

By Michael Phillips Black, CFP, CDFA

 

1.        Not setting defined financial goals:  Define your financial goals clearly.  Set specific goals of what you want and when you want to achieve them.  Envision what you want out of life, financially.  A clear view of your goals is imperative and will cause you to do what is necessary to accomplish them.

 

2.        Not having realistic expectations:  Unrealistic expectations in respect to investment returns are often the source of discontent, either because the advisor “puffed” the potential returns, or because the consumer did not take into perspective the potential downside of losses associated with potentially higher return asset classes.

 

3.        Allowing advisors to service their financial needs before yours:  If your financial advisor has biases to their own companies proprietary products, you may not be getting what you need, rather your advisor is fulfilling his/her production goals.  Is your advisor working for you or his/her firm?

 

4.        Acquiring financial products without understanding how they interact and affect your overall financial plan:  Financial sales people promote the attributes and benefits of their financial products, but do not necessarily know your overall objectives.  It is up to you to hire an advisor that will help you understand the impact of these products on your overall portfolio and determine the appropriate financial products.  How many people have a drawer full of insurance policies, 401k/IRA/brokerage/bank account statements that they haven’t reviewed in several years?

 

5.       Allowing emotions to dictate financial decisions: It is not time to invest when the evening news broadcasts the new high set in the markets.  It feels right, but by definition, the market is expensive.  The reverse is also true, when the market is down…it’s not necessarily the time to sell. Buying and selling based on fear and greed is usually a formula for failure.

 

6.   I can do it myself:  Most people need professional advice to manage their finances, whether it’s tax, legal, investment or other.  Too often, people try to do everything themselves.  Don’t be foolish – know your limitations and get help. The cost of mistakes made by “do-it-yourselfers” usually exceeds the cost of professional guidance


 

 

For more information, please contact us at:

MICHAEL PHILLIPS BLACK
WEALTH MANAGEMENT

7520 East Second Street, Suite 7
Scottsdale, Arizona 85251
(480) 425-0154, FAX (480) 874-1558
E-mail: MPBWM@MPBLACK
.com