folks, another year has slipped past us and we’re on to 2018. And what a year 2017 was! This is my 36th year of projecting what markets might do in the coming year. In 2017’s “WHAT’S AHEAD” I quoted Brian Wesbury at First Trust, from his “Monday Morning Outlook” December 27th, 2016 weekly Blog. He predicted the Dow at 23,750, or an 18.75% return for the year, by the end of 2017. While most other economists from the major investment banks had projected anywhere from 2% - 9% for 2017, according to Business Insider.
They were all wrong……. the Dow closed at 24,720, up over 24%! Once again, Brian was the closest.
This Year Brian predicts the Dow to finish 2018 at 28,500, or a 15% annualized return. As I write this, the Dow is over 25,000!
He also predicts (for you techies):
GDP will grow at 3% for 2018, the fastest annual growth since 2005
Inflation (based on the Consumer Price Index) will be up 2.5%
Unemployment rate will fall to 3.7%, which would be the lowest unemployment rate since the late 1960s
The Fed will raise interest rates 3 times in 2018, with the 10-year treasury to finish the year at 3.0%NONE